Trend Prediction of Cardiovascular Deaths in Honduras using BoxJenkins Models

Abstract

Deaths from cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) account for a disproportionate share of the total death toll in Honduras. Using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model, the authors of this study project how the number of fatalities in Honduras attributable to cardiovascular disease would evolve in the future. The forecasting model underwent a thorough examination that incorporated diagnostic tests including the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test, Autocorrelation Function (ACF), Partial Autocorrelation Function (PACF), and the Box-Jenkins technique to guarantee its dependability and accuracy. This study's findings are important because they provide light on the causes and dynamics driving CVDs in Honduras, allowing for more evidence-based decision making and policy formulation to combat the alarming rise in cardiovascular mortality in the country